Will Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse (Thomasomys burneoi) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse, a newly discovered species that is not classified on the IUCN Red List yet. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive individuals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that Burneo’s Oldfield Mouse persists.

For more information about the species, see:

Wikipedia

iNaturalist

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-burneos?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (4 traders, as of Jul 12, 2025).