Will Bulbonaricus Brucei become Extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of Bulbonaricus Brucei, a species of fish that is classified as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2016). Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual, including wild and captive individuals. The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the species is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that Bulbonaricus Brucei persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

iNaturalist

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 64% chance (7 traders, as of Jul 12, 2025).