Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) Extinct in the Wild by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Bald Eagle, a species that is classified as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2024). It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Bald Eagle persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

iNaturalist

For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-bald-eagle-haliaeetus-leuc?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (5 traders, as of Jun 14, 2025).