Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Question

The EATS act—now called the save our bacon act—would make it illegal for states to pass animal welfare laws that apply to products produced out of state. This would gut most state level animal protection. It would be the worst law for animal welfare ever passed, and would consign hundreds of millions of animals to a life in a cage. Terrifyingly, it has been added to the recent farm bill (though fortunately, even if it passes, egg laying hens will be spared). It will be voted on in the next few days, so this is EXTREMELY TIME SENSITIVE!

(from Bentham’s Bulldog — I also heard about this from my local animal welfare club)

Resolves YES if the current House farm bill becomes law with the provision to overturn lots of important state-level animal welfare laws.

Context: At the time of market creation, the bill had not passed the House, but now that it has, I believe the only hope for animal supporters here is for the bill to fail in the Senate, or for the Senate version not to have the provision.

If you want to make a small difference (but maybe large in expected reduction of animal suffering), consider contacting your senator! I called and emailed mine this morning and it took just a few minutes.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is specifically about this farm bill. If the farm bill fails for any reason (e.g., SNAP disagreements), the market resolves NO, even if a future farm bill contains the same provision.

Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES only if H.R. 7567 (the "Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026") becomes law with provisions mostly equivalent to the Save Our Bacon Act (H.R. 4673).

Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the vote on H.R. 7567 is deferred (rather than the bill being replaced by a new bill), it is still considered the same bill and the market remains open for potential YES resolution.

Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has no binding force on resolution. The market will resolve:

YES when H.R. 7567 becomes law (regardless of when that occurs)

NO when the bill is defeated or at the end of the current Congress

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (76 traders, as of May 9, 2026).