Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Democratic anti-vaxxer opponent to Joe Biden, is somehow 

Manifold gives him a mid-single-digit chance of winning the 2024 election.

 However, one theory of mine for why he might be overrated is that his supporters don't know much about his platform (but have a negative assocation with "Biden" and a positive one with "Kennedy"), and increased searching/media scrutiny will decrease his poll numbers.

Here's...an attempt to quantify that. If 

 resolves NO, this market resolves N/A. If it resolves YES, I will consider the next two polls by pollsters listed above. If he drops by at least 3% on average in these polls (compared to the previous poll by that pollster), resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.

I recognize this isn't the perfect attempt to formalize my theory. Maybe I'll make something different, perhaps more subjective, later.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.