In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Question

Currently the majority of hydrogen available is produced through some form of hydrocarbon decomposition. A reverse process however - for example catalytic conversion of hydrogen and CO2 into methane - is also possible and would create a renewable source of hydrocarbons, which will be increasingly valuable as fossil fuels become more expensive.
Resolves YES if in a given year the mass of hydrogen used up in such processes exceeds the mass derived from hydrocarbons.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2050, followed by 2040 and 2035 are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Apr 11, 2025).