When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?

Question

To be operational, a Starship must have launched.

A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use. This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.

After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.

Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise. For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.

If there are several Starships landed on Mars but the expectation is that few of them will be used as a space going rocket then, unless there is better information, the number operational can be assumed to be the number of them expected to be needed to return humans to Earth.

If you see ambiguities in these requirements, please let me know.

I expect to add more options either soon or eventually. This may depend on %ages they trade at and how much trading this market gets.

The closing date will or should be extended as long as there is interest and options to trade.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 05 by end of 2027/06, followed by 10 by end of 2027/09 and 10 by end of 2027/06 are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of Jun 3, 2026).