What will happen successfully during Starship flight 13?

Question

Starship flight 13 will be the second flight with the Block 3 configuration and also from the second launch pad.

Resolution criteria:

MaxQ Pass the MaxQ callout with the ship largely intact. Loss of tiles or 2 or 3 raptors no longer lit within engine out capability would still be largely intact and successful to this stage.

Stage separation: The ship and booster must separate without immediately losing control.

SECO: The ship must reach Second Engine Cut-off at approximately the correct trajectory i.e. more or less can reach landing hazard zone. Loss of attitude control before or withing a minute of SECO will not be considered successful enough.

Payload deployment: All payloads must be released from the ship without spinning or tumbling uncontrollably. The door does not have to successfully close afterwards to resolve YES. If any payloads are not deployed, this will resolve NO.

In-space engine relight and burn: An engine(s) must start and shutdown after SECO without causing loss of control. SpaceX confirmation may be used for resolution.

Ship reentry (ship in one piece at start of belly flop): The ship must reenter the atmosphere mainly intact and maintain attitude control down to start of the bellyflop. Loss of some tiles or use of some engines is not a problem for a yes resolution

Ship soft splashdown: The ship must perform the "flip and burn" maneuver and come to a near-stop while near vertical above the ocean surface. Rotation about long axis for heat shield inspection is allowed but not necessary. Some issue with Starship causing the splashdown location to be far from the intended location so we don't get footage will resolve no.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Max Q, followed by Stage separation and SECO are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Jul 20, 2026).