What will happen successfully during Starship flight 14?

Question

Starship flight 14 will be the third flight with the Block 3 configuration. Elon has posted that a ship catch might be attempted. Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X 
"Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight"

Resolution criteria:

MaxQ Pass the MaxQ callout with the vehicles largely intact and on course. Loss of tiles or 2 or 3 raptors no longer lit within engine out capability to this stage would be sufficient provided vehicles largely intact and on course.

Stage separation: The ship and booster must separate without immediately losing control.

Booster simulated landing: Controlled low speed near vertical near hover before splashdown or successful booster catch is required. Intentional hover well above sea level before cutting engines to ensure destruction of booster via a fall into gulf/ocean after near hover is acceptable.

SECO: The ship must reach Second Engine Cut-off at approximately the correct trajectory i.e. more or less can reach landing hazard zone. Loss of attitude control before or withing a minute of SECO will not be considered successful enough. A temporary loss of attitude control which is recovered is likely to be acceptable provided it does not cause loss of any major objective of the flight

Fully orbital: Ship has to be fully orbital i.e. perigee of orbit must be above 100km altitude. If the ship reaches orbit but does a de-orbit burn before completing a full revolution this is acceptable.

Payload deployment: All payloads must be released from the ship without spinning or tumbling uncontrollably as far as we can tell. The door does not have to successfully close afterwards to resolve YES. If any payloads are not deployed, this will resolve NO. If going fully orbital is an option for the flight but the option is not taken then payload deployment to sub-orbital trajectory will be sufficient.

Deorbit burn: Engine(s) must start, burn and shutdown while the ship is 'fully orbital'  causing the ship to re-enter the atmosphere sufficiently close to as intended for the ship to reach intended hazard zones without loss of control of the ship.

Ship reentry (ship in one piece at start of belly flop): The ship must reenter the atmosphere mainly intact and maintain attitude control down to start of the bellyflop. Loss of some tiles or use of some engines is not a problem for a yes resolution. If there are multiple optional paths e.g. suborbital to Indian Ocean or fully orbital then course should be to one of the intended hazard zones or intended catch tower. Aborting a catch attempt does not prevent this option resolving yes.

Ship soft splashdown: The ship must perform the "flip and burn" maneuver and come to a near-stop while near vertical above the ocean surface. Rotation about long axis for heat shield inspection is allowed but not necessary. Some issue with Starship causing the splashdown location to be far from the intended location so we don't get footage will resolve no. Will also resolve yes if ship is successfully caught.

Ship Catch: Ship must be caught by the tower chopsticks, come to rest, not explode within 3 hours, nor have major irreparable damage. Scraping off some tiles is acceptable minor damage but clearly noticeable puncture is likely irreparable damage. Hanging in some unintended way like from one chopstick only might be acceptable if they manage to recover it to a transport or other stand on the ground without major irreparable damage.

I will likely add a booster catch option if it appears to be a possible plan. Let me know if you see other options that would be sensible to add or if any further clarifications are needed.

Update 2026-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The SECO milestone does not include the orbital insertion burn.

Update 2026-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Ship soft splashdown:

Early or contingency soft splashdowns can resolve YES if they occur within the designated splashdown area.

If there is no footage, there is a presumption against a successful splashdown. A statement from SpaceX or Elon Musk must specifically confirm a near-stop while near-vertical (simply stating it was "soft" is insufficient see comment 16 Sep 2026 for further explanation).

For Deorbit burn:

A deorbit burn performed as part of an optionally planned contingency trajectory is acceptable.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Max Q, followed by Stage separation and SECO are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Sep 18, 2026).