What will happen successfully during Starship flight 15?

Question

Starship flight 15 will be the fourth flight with the Block 3 configuration.

Elon had posted that a ship catch might be attempted on flight 14.
 Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on X 
"Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight"

However he later said they weren't ready yet and flight 14 did not attempt catch of either booster or ship.

DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) on X 
“We’ve got Flight 14 coming up. This will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship. If this flight goes well, then on Flight 15, we will try to catch the ship. Either at the end of this year or more likely early next, we will refly the ship and refly the booster.”

Resolution criteria:

MaxQ Pass the MaxQ callout with the vehicles largely intact and on course. Loss of tiles or 2 or 3 raptors no longer lit within engine out capability to this stage would be sufficient provided vehicles largely intact and on course.

Stage separation: The ship and booster must separate without immediately losing control.

Booster simulated landing: Controlled low speed near vertical near hover before splashdown or successful booster catch is required. Intentional hover well above sea level before cutting engines to ensure destruction of booster via a fall into gulf/ocean after near hover is acceptable, as is FTS use after the point where the booster would be caught.

SECO: The ship must reach Second Engine Cut-off at approximately the correct trajectory i.e. more or less can reach landing hazard zone. Loss of attitude control before or within a minute of SECO will not be considered successful enough. A temporary loss of attitude control which is recovered is likely to be acceptable provided it does not cause loss of any major objective of the flight. The SECO is for the first main ship burn after stage separation. Any subsequent burns even if required to reach orbit are not relevant.

Fully orbital: Ship has to be fully orbital i.e. perigee of orbit must be above 100km altitude. If the ship reaches orbit but does a de-orbit burn before completing a full revolution this is acceptable.

Payload deployment: All payloads must be released from the ship without spinning or tumbling uncontrollably as far as we can tell. The door does not have to successfully close afterwards to resolve YES. If any payloads are not deployed, this will resolve NO. If going fully orbital is an option for the flight but the option is not taken then payload deployment to sub-orbital trajectory will be sufficient.

Deorbit burn: Engine(s) must start, burn and shutdown while the ship is 'fully orbital' causing the ship to re-enter the atmosphere sufficiently close to as intended for the ship to reach intended hazard zones without loss of control of the ship. A deorbit burn performed as part of an optionally planned contingency trajectory is acceptable.

Ship reentry (ship in one piece at start of belly flop): The ship must re-enter the atmosphere mainly intact and maintain attitude control down to start of the bellyflop. Loss of some tiles or use of some engines is not a problem for a yes resolution. If there are multiple optional paths e.g. suborbital to Indian Ocean or fully orbital then course should be to one of the intended hazard zones or intended catch tower. Aborting a catch attempt does not prevent this option resolving yes.

Ship soft splashdown: The ship must perform the "flip and burn" manoeuvre and come to a near-stop while near vertical above the ocean surface. Rotation about long axis for heat shield inspection is allowed but not necessary. Some issue with Starship causing the splashdown location to be far from the intended location so we don't get footage will resolve NO. Will also resolve YES if ship is successfully caught. Early or contingency soft splashdowns can resolve YES if they occur within a pre-arranged hazard area. 
If there is no footage at a contingent splashdown site to confirm on target, there is a presumption against a successful splashdown. A statement from SpaceX or Elon Musk must specifically confirm on or close to target and something to suggest near-stop while near-vertical like it could have been caught if there was a tower at the right location. (simply stating it was "soft" is insufficient as that could be at 100 miles an hour as opposed to hard being 1000 miles an hour or more.

Ship Catch: Ship must be caught by the tower chopsticks, come to rest, not explode within 3 hours, nor have major irreparable damage. Scraping off some tiles is acceptable minor damage but clearly noticeable puncture is likely irreparable damage. Hanging in some unintended way like from one chopstick only might be acceptable if they manage to recover it to a transport or other stand on the ground without major irreparable damage.
Number of orbits This is relative to Earth surface, assuming launched mainly to East, then must pass from west of the launch site to East of it to count as a completed...

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Max Q, followed by Stage separation and SECO are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Oct 10, 2026).