How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC

Question

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=

for October 2026, UTC time.

If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.

A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.

Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.

(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. Success may well be more of an issue with test flights.)

My understanding of how nextspaceflight colours launches is that the launch ends with payload deployment. Therefore a problem with payload deployment could result in orange or red outlining for partial failure or failure. A failure after this like a deorbit burn failing has been shown outlined in green previously. As long as the outline colour is not clearly wrong resolution will be based on the outline colour. So while there could be some nuance by which my understanding above is incorrect, nextspaceflight method for determining success or partial failure as indicated by colours is what matters for resolution.

Could be a launch of starship and a Falcon heavy in August 2026. These launches would also count as well as Falcon 9 launches.

This market has lower values than previous markets following announcement that Just Read the Instructions droneship has been moved to Starship duties (probably transport rather than catch) and so is no longer expected to be available for falcon 9 catches almost certainly reducing falcon 9 launch cadence.

Dragon capsule is usually considered part of a falcon 9 launch, and leaving ISS is usually considered an undocking rather than a launch. It may not be clear whether launches from other bodies like the moon will be treated as an orbital launch on the resolution page but the intention is to count whatever that page shows.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 8, followed by 9 and 7 are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Sep 23, 2026).