How many Starship launches will occur in 2027?

Question

Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful nor does it need to be intended to be fully orbital)

Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts

Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled

I may resolve answers NO slightly earlier than year end if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable

UTC is used for determining 2027 start/end

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Over 10 Launches, followed by Over 15 launches and Over 20 launches are most likely. See the market for live updates (27 traders, as of Oct 25, 2026).