El Nino and La Nina conditions for this market are determined by display of numbers 0.5 or higher for El Nino and display of -0.5 or lower for La Nina at 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Colouring of numbers on that page is irrelevant for this market. Colouring only comes after 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods indicating 'an episode' rather than 'conditions'. I am not going to wait for episodes to be identified, this market resolves on 'conditions' ie this market is on a single 3 month average number of |0.5| or more not a 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods.