If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Question

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence except you're allowed to short options

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place., followed by C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time. and B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first. are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Aug 23, 2026).