Mavericks (YES) or Lakers (NO) first to...

Question

Starting with the 2025 NBA Playoffs, who wins the Luka/AD trade both short and long term.

Markets about playoff series won may resolve to 50/50 if both teams achieve the X series won milestone in the same playoff run.

e.g. if Lakers and Mavericks meet in the 2025 conference finals "Win 2 Playoff Series?" resolves to 50/50.

Also if Lakers win 1 playoff series in 2025 and Mavs win 0 in 2025 then they meet in 2026 conference finals, "Win 2 Playoff Series?" resolves to 50/50 since they both achieved the milestone in the 2026 playoffs albeit in different rounds.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Win a title?, followed by Make Finals? and Win 2 titles? are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 15, 2026).