Will most digital entertainment be AI generated by 2040?

Question

Resolves yes if most of the time people spend entertaining themselves on their phones, computers, headsets etc... is by consuming AI generated content.

I will only confirm yes if a poll at that time shows a broad consensus that this has happened. I will resolve n/a if there is significant disagreement and no if there is a consensus otherwise.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 68% chance (53 traders, as of Jul 12, 2026).