Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Question

Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (28 traders, as of Jul 26, 2026).