Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Question

Does not require strict abolition of the electoral college - methods that rely on the popular vote but still operate via the electoral college (e.g., NPVIC) result in a positive resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (29 traders, as of Nov 9, 2026).