Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Question

Update 10/29: Requires abolition of the electoral college - methods that rely on the popular vote but still operate via the electoral college (e.g., NPVIC) do not result in a positive resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (16 traders, as of Nov 4, 2026).