Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Question

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (118 traders, as of Jul 11, 2026).