Will my parents' home in Land 'o Lakes Florida experience significant damage from Hurricane Milton?

Question

Also bet here: @/CarsonGale/what-will-happen-to-my-parents-thei

My parents live in Tampa Bay Area and are trying to decide whether to evacuate. They live in Land 'O Lakes, near the Tampa Bay Area, which is ~11 miles outside of the nearest evacuation zone. See this link below for more information on evacuation zones, and type in "Land O' Lakes" to see their general location:

https://pascogis.pascocountyfl.net/evaczone/finder.html

[link preview]
Their home is very glass-heavy - they have tall windows across almost the entire home. They have a pool in their backyard and live right next to a large pond and several nearby lakes.

Despite being in a "No Evacuation Zone", I'm worried that being only 11 miles outside of the nearest zone, having glass windows, and living near large bodies of water puts them in danger of Hurricane Milton. Please help me estimate the danger to my parents and their house from this hurricane.

Resolution Criteria:

Definition of Significant Damage:

"Significant damage" is defined as any damage that makes the home uninhabitable or unsafe without repairs, OR results in repair costs exceeding 10% of the home’s estimated pre-hurricane market value. This includes but is not limited to:

Broken windows or structural damage to walls or roof (e.g., partial roof collapse or large breaches in the exterior).

Window damage will only be considered "significant" if:

More than one window is broken, OR

A single window breaks in a manner that creates a serious safety risk (e.g., exposing the interior to hazardous external conditions, such as heavy rain or high winds), OR

The breakage involves large or structurally critical windows that could affect the integrity of the home’s envelope (e.g., large bay windows, glass doors, or windows on the first floor that are essential for the home’s structural security).

Extensive water damage from flooding that compromises the home’s interior (e.g., flooding of more than 1 foot of water inside).

Wind damage that compromises the structural integrity of the home (e.g., severe damage to the foundation, garage, or other critical areas of the house).

Data Sources for Resolution:

The market will resolve based on evidence from:

My personal knowledge of the outcome of any damage and my parents' assessment of the situation.

Insurance claims filed and paid for repairs to the home exceeding the stated threshold.

Photographic or official documentation showing major structural damage.

Written confirmation from a licensed contractor assessing damage to the home.

Timeframe:

The market will resolve based on damage incurred as a direct result of Hurricane Milton, up to 7 days after the storm passes Land O' Lakes, to account for delayed flooding or impact assessments. After this period, damage from unrelated causes will not be considered.

Close of Market:

The market will remain open for 10 days after the hurricane's landfall to allow for the collection of reliable data on the condition of the home.

Ambiguities:

In the event of conflicting evidence, the market will resolve based on my personal judgment as the market creator after considering the information available.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Dec 17, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.