Will my family continue to call me fat by 2035?

Question

Since I was young (10-12 years old), my parents and 5 younger siblings have regularly called me fat. For context, I was stick thin as a child and never actually overweight, so it was always playful ribbing and never with any malicious intent.

Somehow the custom has continued to today (I'm now 28), and everyone closest to me (my friends, roommates, and romantic partner of 5 years) all call me fat regularly and make frequent fat jokes. A typical day might proceed as follows:

Text from my brother (who lives in Utah) "Move over, Carson, you're squishing me"

On a walk with my partner @EmilyFuhriman, "Carson, should we find an alternative route away from that bridge? It says it has a weight limit of 10,000 lbs"

In case you're curious about my current weight, see: @/CarsonGale/will-i-beat-emily-in-the-20232028-b

I like the fat jokes - it's a constant compliment that those closest to me view me as having extremely thick skin. But, ~12 years from market creation, will my family continue to make fat jokes?

This market resolves positively if, within the calendar year 2035, at least 3 of the 7 people in my immediate family (parents and 5 siblings) make a comment or joke about me being fat.

I may modify the question criteria pending extenuating circumstances.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93% chance (6 traders, as of May 4, 2025).