Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Question

The accounts cannot be owned by a person who works for the corporation - the corporation itself must own the account.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold accounts really are the entities they purport to be.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 63% chance (30 traders, as of Jul 30, 2024).