In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Question

https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/

90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).

Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.

Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Helped with >60% confidence, followed by Uncertain and Helped with >80% confidence are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of May 14, 2026).