How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of full-time employees of OpenAI or Anthropic who voluntarily resign, citing ethical reasons (including but not limited to risks of human extinction or disempowerment), or publicly announce that they will do so, during the month of September 2026, Pacific Time.

Jacob Coxon counts as one such person for the purposes of this market. See his tweet about resigning from Anthropic, which went viral with 712K+ likes as of September 10. His resignation was covered in the Wall Street Journal.

I'll wait for two extra days, in case any resignations happen during September but are only publicized later. If needed, I may add more options to this market. N+ means greater than or equal to N.

Comments and resources

I think now is a good time to resign from a frontier lab, especially if you work on capabilities, likely even if you work on safety. The more people resign soon after Jacob Coxon, the bigger a story this could become.

Here are a few resources/considerations for lab employees who think they might resign:

More about why you might want to resign now: Joseph Miller

Think about a media strategy before you quit: sjadler

Counterpoint: Dear God, Please Do Not Resign In Protest.

I liked this post, but seeing the Jacob Coxon situation updated me significantly away from this.

Weights and Balances (tweet)

"Tinder for OpenAI & Anthropic researchers who want to quit in sync to avoid accelerating the other side"

List of AI lab employees who have resigned so far: Ethical AI Departures

Let me know if there are other resources I should add.

If you work at a lab and quitting is the right decision for you, I hope this market can play a small role in helping you make that step. If there's a growing consensus that somebody will quit, maybe that will give you the confidence that you can quit. Or maybe the silly incentive of insider-trading on your own resignation will push you over the line? In any case, good luck!

Update 2026-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resignations that occurred in September 2026 will count even if they are publicized after October 2.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2+ Anthropic employees resign, followed by 2+ OpenAI employees resign and 3+ Anthropic employees resign are most likely. See the market for live updates (114 traders, as of Oct 16, 2026).