ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if an ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agent or officer is murdered while on duty by December 31, 2026. "Murdered" means intentionally killed by another person during the performance of official duties. Resolution will be verified through official ICE announcements, Department of Homeland Security statements, or credible news reports from major outlets. The market resolves NO if no such death occurs by the deadline.

Background

ICE agents have historically been killed in the line of duty while attempting to apprehend suspects. Most notably, ICE Special Agent Jaime Zapata was ambushed and murdered by the Mexican criminal group Los Zetas in San Luis Potosí, Mexico in 2011. Following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law on July 4, 2025, ICE received unprecedented funding and became the largest and most well-funded federal law enforcement agency in U.S. history. ICE started the second Trump administration with over 20,000 employees, with DHS recruiting 10,000 new ICE agents and an additional 5,000 personnel from federal law enforcement agencies and 21,000 National Guard troops helping arrest undocumented immigrants.

Considerations

The question specifically asks about agents "murdered on duty," which excludes deaths from accidents, medical conditions, or COVID-19 contracted during work—all of which have occurred among ICE personnel in recent years. There have been documented online death threats against ICE officers, indicating potential risk to personnel.

Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on ICE agents only. Deaths of agents from other DHS agencies (such as CBP) do not count toward resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 21% chance (87 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).