Gaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on January 1, 2030, the English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" (or any successor article primarily covering the same events) prominently uses the term "genocide" to describe Israel's genocide in Gaza. This includes its use in the article's title, its lead section, or a dedicated infobox within the article.

The resolution will be determined by examining the live version of the article on en.wikipedia.org at 12:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2030. If the article is unavailable or significantly altered, an archived version from archive.org as close as possible to the resolution date will be used. If no such article exists, or if the term "genocide" is not prominently used to describe Israel's actions in Gaza as per the criteria above, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The "Gaza genocide" entry on English Wikipedia refers to accusations that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip during the ongoing conflict that began in October 2023. Following a "Request for Comment" (RFC) process involving Wikipedia editors, the article's title was changed from "Allegations of genocide in the 2023 Israeli attack on Gaza" to "Gaza genocide" in July 2024. The topic was subsequently added to Wikipedia's "List of Genocides" page in November 2024. This decision by editors was influenced by what they identified as a significant body of scholarship and opinions from experts, governments, UN agencies, and human rights organizations supporting the classification of the events as genocide.

Considerations

Wikipedia's content, particularly on highly contentious and politically sensitive topics like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is subject to continuous editorial scrutiny, debate, and potential changes in consensus over time. Editorial policies regarding neutrality and reliable sources can evolve, and external developments, such as the ongoing International Court of Justice case concerning allegations of genocide against Israel, could influence future editorial decisions and article content. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) was voted "generally unreliable" as a source on the conflict by Wikipedia editors in 2024. Reports have also emerged regarding coordinated editing efforts related to the conflict.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (9 traders, as of May 5, 2026).