Will Magnus Carlsen crack 2900?

Question

Resolves YES if Magnus ever holds a FIDE rating of at least 2900. His current peak, per Wikipedia, is 2881. Resolves NO if Carlsen dies or has not reached this rating by 2100.

Close date updated to 2099-12-31 5:59 pm

Update: 2700chess.com to be used as a resolution source.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (33 traders, as of Sep 18, 2026).