Which of these AI Safety Research Futarchy projects will get Conf Accepted, if chosen?

Question

This is a derivative market of the markets linked to from this post.

For projects that do not get chosen by the futarchy, the corresponding market here will resolve N/A. Otherwise, they resolve according to whether both the "uploaded to arXiv" and "accepted to a top ML conference" resolve YES (if either resolves NO or N/A, they resolve NO).

Be aware the resolving markets N/A isn't always easy, I will do my best to ask for mod assistance if there is trouble.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Goal Crystallisation, followed by Post-training order and CoT Monitorability and Detection game are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Nov 6, 2025).