Kessler Syndrome before 2028?

Question

This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome before the close date. Kessler syndrome is a scenario where collisions between objects and satellites in low earth orbit generate debris which then collides with more satellites.

I'd like to exercise discretion in resolving this, so I will avoid betting in this market myself. Here are a few factors I might find important.

Whether the collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.

Timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome. If it goes up over the course of years, I'm inclined to say that the space community is simply more tolerant of accepting losses due to chance and a higher debris environment.

Damage to space infrastructure: If 50% of satellites launched after 2020  cannot be deorbited before they are destroyed, or are forced to deorbit early, that suggests Kessler syndrome. If this number is more like 1%, then not.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (28 traders, as of Jan 8, 2026).