In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Question

This market resolves to the first decade in which the factors of RSA-2048 are publicly known.

RSA-2048 refers to the number

25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859095700097330459748808428401797429100642458691817195118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823824281198163815010674810451660377306056201619676256133844143603833904414952634432190114657544454178424020924616515723350778707749817125772467962926386356373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357

Which is a 2048 bit integer created for the purposes of the RSA Factoring challenge

See also:

@/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b

@/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b-ee7b47b7c8ab

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2080 or later, followed by 2040s and 2030s are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Jan 18, 2026).