🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?

Question

In what year will global sales of EVs exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?

For the purposes of this market, hybrids don’t count towards either category.

Resolves based on analysis by Bloomberg or any other reliable media outlet that crunches sales globally and produces a report.

Background:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133234_report-globally-internal-combustion-car-sales-have-already-peaked

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030 - 2040, followed by Before 2030 and Never / 2040 or after  are most likely. See the market for live updates (62 traders, as of Mar 28, 2026).