Will the first law of thermodynamics get a revision before 2030

Question

Will 'resolve yes' if we get an update to the first law that is at least looked at as a possible option or viable alternative to the current one. Don't need to be accepted by everyone as it would be controversial, but will have to be accepted by at least a substantial and credible minority.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (34 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).