Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Question

The mass driver is a proposed structure designed to accelerate payloads to high speeds, enabling them to be launched into space more efficiently. Constructing a mass driver on the Moon could offer numerous benefits for future space infrastructure. It has the potential to reduce the cost of sending spacecraft propellant to space-based depots and pave the way for industrializing the Moon, making lunar mining a viable option.

As we approach the end of the 21st century, will we see this innovative technology become a reality on the lunar surface?

[image]This question with a shorter timeframe:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Berg/will-a-mass-driver-be-constructed-o-6f53717631bb)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 69% chance (20 traders, as of Jun 4, 2026).