Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Question

The market in question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-metr-ai-coding-upl?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4)The Feb 2026 updated estimate in question:

https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (10 traders, as of Oct 17, 2026).