Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Question

[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.

Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors. Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.

Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other. If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.

YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.

SA winding down, returning outside capital, or ceasing to exist as an independent investment manager → NO. Citadel Advisors winding down or converting to a family office → SA is compared against Citadel's last reported net AUM.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (26 traders, as of Aug 24, 2026).