Will my type 1 diabetes be cured before 2030

Question

[tweet]I am a type 1 diabetic in Canada. I don’t know if I produce any insulin but if I do it’s not much. I became diabetic 6 years ago at 17. The resolution criteria for this market is not too strict; if i need to inject insulin every few days, or something, that’s ok. If for the typical meal I can just eat it and not inject insulin and not go in hyperglycemia, that would probably be sufficient for this market. A requirement is that if I am ‘cured’ of type 1 diabetes, I would need to have to spend less than half the time on diabetes related tasks in a typical week.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (18 traders, as of Feb 7, 2026).