Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?

Question

Should be a top 20 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but a couple people care a fair bit about it.

I am just starting a project to see how doable this is at scale, may drop it if it doesn’t go anywhere. Tips welcome.

By ‘solve’ I mean AI is very confident that the solution is correct. A mathematician needn’t sign off on it. If you think my AI ends up wrong about a solution I’d be happy to bet on it.

Update 2026-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the exact methodology for defining a math subfield and its top 20 problems:

Subfield granularity: Defined at the community level (roughly 300–500 total subfields, e.g., 'spectral geometry' is valid, but 'geometry' or 'zero-sum theory' are not).

Subfield selection: Identified by prompting 12 '5.6 sol' and 12 'opus 5' AI subagents. A subfield qualifies if it receives 5+ mentions from either group.

Problem ordering: For each subfield, agents will generate the top ~30 problems and vote on their ordering to establish the top problems.

Update 2026-08-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution criteria have been updated regarding what constitutes a 'solved' problem:

The proof must be correct to count for a YES resolution.

Correctness will be evaluated by a fleet of adversarial verifier subagents (5.6 sol / 5.6 sol ultra).

If the proof is ultimately proven incorrect, it will not count.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Sep 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.