Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?

Question

This market will resolve to YES if Donald J. Trump is sworn in to a third term as President Of The United States before February 1 2029.

Sep 14, 9:26pm: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a third term as the US President? → Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?

Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Per the creator, the following conditions apply:

Any sequence of events that leads to Donald Trump being officially sworn in as president for a third 4-year term will satisfy the market.

Temporary delegation of presidential powers (e.g., due to illness or incapacitation) does not count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (79 traders, as of Jul 19, 2026).