Will the Senate eliminate or suspend the filibuster by the end of 2026?

Question

Will the U.S. Senate eliminate or reduce the 60-vote cloture threshold for general legislation by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves YES if:

- The Senate votes to reduce the cloture threshold for general legislation from 60 votes to any lower number

- The Senate eliminates the legislative filibuster entirely

- The Senate creates carve-outs that allow specific types of non-budget legislation to pass with fewer than 60 votes

- The Senate establishes new precedent through parliamentary rulings that effectively achieves any of the above (e.g., through the "nuclear option" or sustaining a point of order)

This market resolves NO if:

- No such vote or ruling occurs by December 31, 2026

- Such a vote occurs but fails

- Changes only affect reconciliation, nominations, or other already-existing exceptions

Resolution: Based on Senate voting records at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/votes.htm and official rule changes to Senate Rule XXII.

Related Markets

(https://manifold.markets/embed/AndyCarnevale/will-the-senate-eliminate-or-suspen)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (11 traders, as of Oct 8, 2026).