Russo-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?

Question

reference UN or Wikipedia for resolution

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026 at least one of the following is true:

The UN Treaty Collection (UNTS) lists a bilateral instrument between Ukraine and the Russian Federation that explicitly ends the armed conflict (e.g., “peace treaty,” “peace agreement,” or an armistice/cessation of hostilities that states it ends the war) and shows it entered into force on or before the deadline. The effective “entry into force” date controls, even if UNTS posts it later. Primary source: UN Treaty Collection/UNTS search. (treaties.un.org, research.un.org)

The English Wikipedia article “Russo-Ukrainian War” displays an end date (i.e., not “present”) on or before the deadline and that status remains for 48 consecutive hours after the deadline (checked via page history or a stable revision). Source: Russo-Ukrainian War – Wikipedia. If UNTS (criterion 1) and Wikipedia disagree, UNTS prevails. (en.wikipedia.org)

Otherwise resolves NO.

Notes/edges:

Name variations (“peace agreement,” “comprehensive ceasefire,” etc.) are acceptable if the text states the war/conflict has ended. If an instrument is only a temporary ceasefire without language ending the war and Wikipedia still lists the conflict as ongoing, criterion 2 will not be met. (research.un.org, en.wikipedia.org)

Background

The Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2014 and escalated with Russia’s full‑scale invasion on February 24, 2022; as of 2025 the conflict is ongoing per Wikipedia. (en.wikipedia.org)

Under UN Charter Article 102, treaties and international agreements are registered and published by the UN; UNTS is the standard place to verify entry into force and parties. (treaties.un.org, research.un.org)

Considerations

Wars sometimes end de facto via armistice without a formal peace treaty (e.g., “no war, no peace”); this market requires either an in‑force bilateral instrument ending the conflict (UNTS) or Wikipedia switching the war’s status to ended. UNTS takes precedence if both exist. (research.un.org)

Wikipedia can lag; the 48‑hour stability check is intended to avoid transient or vandalized edits. Verification will rely on the page history/stable revision of the “Russo‑Ukrainian War” article. (en.wikipedia.org)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (22 traders, as of May 1, 2026).