Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?

Question

Resolves to Yes if an AI has the strength to beat world champions in Magic the Gathering before the end of 2026

If AI were able to beat the world champion in any one of the major format, Draft, Constructed or Sealed, it would count as a resolve Yes. The AI doesnt have to actually be participating in the world championship (it likely would not), but as long as the AI demonstrated consistent strength in beating current world champion in repeated games (70% win rate with 10+ games played) that would count as a Yes.

AI doesn't necessarily have to beat the current world champion. Beating any of the top 20 in the world within past 3 years is sufficient. The goal is to demonstrate that the AI has the strength to likely win against the world champion.

Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Format Clarification:

The match must be played in an official format of Magic: The Gathering.

This includes the originally mentioned formats (Draft, Constructed, or Sealed) as well as any other format officially recognized.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (65 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).