Will the king of Sweden abdicate the throne?

Question

In Denmark, Norway, and Sweden there has been a tradition that the king remains king until he dies, and that he does not abdicate the throne. However, the queen of Denmark recently decided to abdicate the throne anyway. Will the king of Sweden follow her lead and abdicate the throne before his death?

This market resolves to YES if King Carl XVI Gustaf abdicates the throne before his death. The market resolves to NO when he dies.

The close date for this question is arbitrary. It will be extended until King Carl XVI Gustaf dies or abdicates.

Related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/AliceRyhl/will-the-king-of-norway-abdicate-th)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 28% chance (38 traders, as of Mar 11, 2026).