An AI agent is something which takes a task and directly applies changes to a code base. (Possibly via a merge request, letting a human to review changes.) I.e. it works similarly to giving a task to a programmer.

The market resolves to "YES" if such agents exist by the end of the year and are used in commercial environments, essentially displacing work of programmers.

The agent must work for a mainstream programming language and a commonly used code base format. "AI app generator" which produces something from a template does not count, neither do specialized "no code" environments.

Tools like Copilot do not count - they are designed to help a programmer to write code, not to replace a programmer. 

Experiments in a lab settings do not count - it's much easier to operate in a controlled environment.