Will the 'Yes' vote prevail in the Italian referendum on justice reform?

Question

Resolution criteria

The referendum will be held on 22 and 23 March 2026. The market resolves YES if the majority of votes cast are in favor of the reform, and NO if the majority vote against it. Results will be available from official Italian government sources, including the Ministry of Interior (Ministero dell'Interno) at https://www.interno.gov.it/ and the official gazette (Gazzetta Ufficiale).

This is a confirmatory referendum, meaning the law comes into force only if the popular vote is in favour.

Background

The Italian Parliament approved the constitutional reform on 30 October 2025, but it did not secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority required for a constitutional amendment to enter into force, triggering a referendum. The reform makes three important changes: separating careers between judges and prosecutors, creating two separate self-governing bodies for judges and prosecutors, and establishing a High Disciplinary Court for both judges and prosecutors.

The governing parties did not organise a unified effort in favour of the reform, with Meloni's Brothers of Italy notably avoiding using its party symbol in promotional materials, unlike the League and Forza Italia. Some centre-left figures, including former Constitutional Court president Augusto Barbera, have endorsed the "Yes" campaign. The National Association of Magistrates and centre-left opposition parties are fiercely opposed to the reform, claiming it will weaken the judiciary.

Considerations

Italian referenda are especially susceptible to symbolic or plebiscitary framing due to the often-technical nature of the legal changes being proposed, prompting political actors and media to translate the vote into more accessible narratives. Historical examples include the 1993 abrogative referendum and the 2016 constitutional referendum, both of which became plebiscites on the political class and the premiership respectively, rather than votes on the specific legal content.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 23, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.