Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Question

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots. The test requires a robot to enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary tools and ingredients, and then prepare a cup of coffee. The Coffee Test challenges a robot's ability to navigate unknown environments, recognize objects, manipulate tools and materials, and follow a sequence of tasks to achieve a specific goal. While there have been significant advancements in robotics, no robot has yet passed The Coffee Test.

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" within a specific time frame before January 1st, 2030?

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2030 a robot is publicly and credibly documented to have:

Successfully entered an unfamiliar residential environment, located the kitchen, and autonomously navigated the space, including:

a. Identifying and avoiding obstacles. 
b. Adapting to different lighting conditions and surfaces.

Demonstrated the ability to identify and manipulate various kitchen tools, appliances, and ingredients, such as:

a. Recognizing coffee makers or machines, coffee filters, coffee grinders, and kettles. 
b. Identifying coffee beans or grounds, water sources, and optional items like sugar, milk, or creamer. 
c. Operating appliances and tools, such as turning on the coffee maker, grinding coffee beans, and pouring water.

Exhibited the capability to follow a sequence of tasks to prepare a cup of coffee, including:

a. Retrieving and preparing the necessary tools, appliances, and ingredients. 
b. Following a logical order of steps to make the coffee. 
c. Adjusting to variations in coffee-making equipment or processes based on the available tools and appliances.

Successfully completed The Coffee Test, resulting in a properly prepared cup of coffee, within a specific time frame not exceeding 20 minutes, which is comparable to an average human performing the same task.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the robot's design, capabilities, and performance during The Coffee Test, including the time taken to complete the test.

Reporting of the findings in one or more peer-reviewed scientific journals or relevant media outlets.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 78% chance (23 traders, as of May 23, 2026).