In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Question

Background

The Millennium Prize Problems are seven famous open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Hodge Conjecture

Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness

P vs NP

Riemann Hypothesis

Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap

An AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would mark a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research.

Resolution Criteria

Evidence required

A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must show that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.

AI autonomy

Humans may design, train, or fine-tune the model, but the final logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI.

Human assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating public training data, and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people.

Earliest-year rule

The market resolves to the bracket containing the calendar year in which the qualifying peer-reviewed paper is first made public.

If multiple Millennium problems are solved by AI, the earliest qualifying publication date determines resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2025-2029, followed by 2030-2049 and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (68 traders, as of Jul 29, 2026).