Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Question

Various screeds have been written questioning the accuracy of the world highest air temperature reading currently recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); however, the official position of Dr. Randall Cerveny, the WMO Rapporteur of Weather & Climate Extremes, is that "The WMO Archive for Weather & Climate Extremes is always willing to investigate any past extreme record when new credible evidence is presented. However, Both the US National Extremes Committee and the WMO Archive of weather and climate extremes accept the 1913 temperature observation."

One notable case of a decertification of a historical temeprature record is during a WMO review spanning 2010-2012 of the 1922 El Azizia, Libya 136.4F record, where the decertification decision was made on the basis of 5 distinct lines of argument.

If the Furance Creek record is decertified, the WMO world record high temperature would belong instead to the 1931 Kebili, Tunisia reading of 131F, a measurement which has similiarly attracted criticsm.

This market will resolve YES if prior to the close of the 2020s the WMO has made a final determination to decertify the 1913 Furnace Creek temperature record; otherwise, it will resolve NO. Note that if the WMO begins but does not conclude an investigation, this question will resolve NO.

Decertification of the temperature record would have a potential impact on the outcome of the following market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/vincentpearce/will-a-new-highest-air-temperature-b5502c8fa8aa?r=QWxRdWlubg)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (11 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).