Will WW3 start before gta6?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if a third global conflict meeting the definition of World War III begins before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on Thursday, November 19, 2026.

For resolution purposes, World War III is defined as a hypothetical, catastrophic global conflict involving major powers and widespread military engagement across multiple continents. The conflict must be formally declared or widely recognized by international media and governments as constituting a third world war. Proxy wars, regional conflicts, cyberattacks, or terrorism alone do not qualify. The market resolves NO if November 19, 2026 passes without such a conflict beginning.

Background

Various conflicts, most significantly the current phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present), the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present), and rising tensions over the status of Taiwan, have been perceived as flashpoints for World War III. Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, speculation about World War III has shifted toward emerging threats, including terrorism and cyberware, with great power competition renewed between the United States, China, and Russia.

Considerations

The term "World War III" has been used colloquially throughout history to describe various conflicts and crises that never escalated to global war. This market requires an actual outbreak of large-scale international conflict, not merely heightened tensions or regional wars. The meme referenced in popular culture—that surprising events occur "before GTA 6"—reflects the game's cultural significance and the extended timeline until its release.

This description was generated by AI.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (25 traders, as of Jun 9, 2026).