Will the Supreme Court find that Tennessee's SB1 (ban on transgender health care for minors) is constitutional?

Question

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve "YES" if the Supreme Court affirms the ruling of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, remands for consideration on grounds that do not relate to the issue at hand (i.e. the law banning transgender health care for minors), remanding for further concideration because the Trump administration reversed the opinion of the Biden administration, or dismisses as improvidently granted. This market will resolve to "NO" if the Supreme Court reverses the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, remands for reconsideration on a hightened level of scrutiny, remanding for the court to reapply rational basis scrutiny in a mannor that fundmentaly differs from the way that the Sixth Circuit applied rational basis scrutiny originally (e.g. "rational basis with bite").

In the unlikely event that the case is rendered moot (e.g. by Tennessee repealing the law) it will resolve N/A.

To preserve the integrity of this market as a forum for predictions, the market may close anytime the Supreme Court is issuing opinions and then reopen after it has finished, provided that the opinion in this case has not issued.

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Note: due to posible ambiguity I will not trade on this market.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jun 18, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.